Bitcoin bewertet Risiko von Zollschock zu niedrig
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Die bevorstehende Entscheidung des US-Supreme Court zur Rechtmäßigkeit der umfassenden Zölle aus der Trump-Ära stellt ein erhebliches, unterschätztes Risiko für Risikoaktiva dar. Vorhersagemärkte geben der Regierung derzeit nur eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 23-30 % für einen Erfolg, was auf eine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Urteils hindeutet, das Zölle auf Hunderte Milliarden Importe für ungültig erklären könnte. Ein solches Ergebnis würde wahrscheinlich einen 'Zollschock' auslösen, der globale Handelsströme sofort verändern und Volatilität in die Finanzmärkte bringen würde.
Bitcoin, oft als Absicherung gegen systemische Risiken betrachtet, scheint dieses Ereignis falsch zu bewerten. Die aktuelle Preisentwicklung zeigt kaum Anzeichen einer Positionierung für eine potenzielle Marktdislokation. Falls das Gericht gegen die Regierung entscheidet, könnte die daraus resultierende Marktturbulenz Bitcoin zunächst zusammen mit traditionellen Aktiva unter Druck setzen und seine Erzählung als unkorreliertes Asset auf die Probe stellen. Jedoch könnte anhaltender Marktstress letztlich Zuflüsse zu wahrgenommenen sicheren Häfen lenken.
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