Bitcoin-Händler hedgen gegen US-Shutdown-Risiko
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Bitcoin-Händler positionieren sich aktiv für potenzielle Volatilität, die von einem möglichen US-Regierungs-Shutdown ausgehen könnte, wobei Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket eine erhöhte Dringlichkeit widerspiegeln, da die Finanzierungsfristen näher rücken. Diese Hedging-Aktivität deutet darauf hin, dass Marktteilnehmer erwarten, dass makroökonomische Unsicherheit die Krypto-Bewertungen beeinflussen könnte, obwohl die direkten Mechanismen spekulativ bleiben.
Die zitierte Analyse warnt vor einem potenziellen Abrutschen auf 60.000 US-Dollar, wenn ein Shutdown einen 'statistischen Blackout' auslöst – was die Transparenz wirtschaftlicher Daten verringert und potenziell die Risikoaversion erhöht. Solche Vorhersagen beruhen jedoch auf kaskadierenden Annahmen über Marktpsychologie und Liquiditätseffekte, was genaue Kursziele angesichts sich entwickelnder politischer Verhandlungen höchst unsicher macht.
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