Mean Reversion vs. Trend Following: Which Wins in 2026?

Every strategy falls into one of two buckets.

1. Mean Reversion: "What goes up must come down." (Buying dips, Selling tops).
2. Trend Following: "The trend is your friend." (Buying breakouts, Selling breakdowns).

The Data

In 2025, our ML Engine analyzed 10 million simulated trades.

• Trend Following outperformed significantly in Q1 and Q4 (Bull runs).
• Mean Reversion crushed Q2 and Q3 (Choppy consolidation).

Psychology of the Strategy

• Mean Reversion feels good. You have a high win rate (buy low, sell slightly higher). But one big crash wipes you out.
• Trend Following feels bad. You have a low win rate (lots of small losses/whipsaws). But one big win pays for everything.

Which Should You Choose?

Don't choose one. Diversify by Strategy. Run a Trend Bot on Bitcoin (which trends) and a Mean Reversion (Grid) Bot on Stablecoin pairs or range-bound alts. This smooths your Equity Curve.