Bitcoin Profitability Hits Historic Lows

Bitcoin's current trading range in the low-$60,000s has pushed the market into an unprecedented profit cycle, with data indicating approximately 59% of the supply is now held at a loss. This surpasses previous historical thresholds, reflecting significant downward pressure and widespread unrealized losses among holders. The shift from Newhedge's earlier 51.78% profit metric to analyst DurdenBTC's 59% loss figure underscores rapid deterioration in market conditions.

While such extreme profit-cycle lows typically signal capitulation phases, they also historically precede potential recovery opportunities as weaker hands exit. The concentration of losses may create a foundation for accumulation by long-term investors, though immediate sentiment remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. Monitoring on-chain metrics for signs of supply redistribution will be crucial in assessing whether this represents a cyclical bottom or further downside risk.

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