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Bitcoin's $80K Test Hinges on Bond Market

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Bitcoin's recovery toward the $80,000 level is increasingly tied to developments in the bond market, as the 10-year Treasury yield compresses into one of its tightest ranges of the year. This compression occurs ahead of a dense macro calendar, including Federal Reserve decisions, which typically influence risk assets. The narrow yield range suggests uncertainty, and a breakout could set the direction for Bitcoin. Institutional inflows have been a key driver of Bitcoin's recent recovery, but the sustainability of these flows depends on the macro outlook signaled by bond yields. If yields break lower, it could support Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Conversely, a spike in yields might pressure Bitcoin as investors shift toward safer assets. The Fed's stance remains crucial, but the bond market may offer more immediate cues. Bitcoin's price action this week will likely reflect the interplay between institutional demand and macro signals from the Treasury market.

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