Институциональные факторы преобладают над динамикой халвинга Биткоина
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Традиционный четырехлетний цикл Биткоина, исторически обусловленный шоками предложения из-за халвинга и последующим участием розничных инвесторов, сталкивается с беспрецедентным влиянием институциональных игроков. Предсказуемая модель роста цен после халвинга затмевается сложными институциональными механизмами, которые фундаментально меняют рыночную динамику.
Три ключевых институциональных фактора — управление ликвидностью, структуры левериджа и стратегии распределения капитала — теперь оказывают большее влияние, чем сокращение предложения из-за халвинга. Этот сдвиг предполагает, что ценовое обнаружение Биткоина становится менее зависимым от циклического энтузиазма розничных инвесторов и более чувствительным к институциональным рамкам, потенциально создавая более зрелую, но менее предсказуемую рыночную среду.
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