政治不确定性推动预测市场波动
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预测市场正显示出政治风险加剧的信号，Polymarket对美国1月政府关门的概率已飙升至77%，反映出市场对财政政策僵局的日益担忧。这一急剧上升是在最近的政治言论之后发生的，包括前总统唐纳德·特朗普的评论，暗示党派紧张局势可能升级，从而扰乱政府运作。
预测市场概率的快速变动表明，像Polymarket这样的加密原生平台正日益成为现实世界政治和经济风险的敏感晴雨表。尽管这些市场提供了宝贵的前瞻性指标，但交易者应注意，这种波动往往预示着更广泛的市场不确定性，可能在未来几周内影响加密资产与传统风险资产的相关性。
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